The 2026 midterm elections are just four days away. So where do things stand — nationwide — in the race to control Congress? Which party has a better chance of, you know, winning? To get a sense of that, it helps to geek out over some cold, hard data.

The usual caveats apply, of course. Polls aren't predictions; they're momentary snapshots of public opinion. And they have been wrong before.

Yet time is running out — and the stakes in November couldn't be higher, especially for President Trump, who has enjoyed complete Republican control of Congress for the first half of his second term. Flipping the House would give Democrats the power to block the president's agenda, investigate his administration and even impeach him (again); flipping the Senate would allow them to stymie his Supreme Court nominees too.

The state-by-state midterm landscape is reaching its final form — and some clear polling trends have emerged. Here are the numbers to watch as Election Day nears.

The generic congressional ballot 

Every pollster asks a version of the same question: If an election for U.S. Congress were held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your district? In fact, this particular polling prompt is so pervasive, it's known as the "generic ballot" (at least among politics nerds).

You obviously can't divine the outcome of an entire midterm election from a single question that flattens 435 House contests into a binary choice between "the Democrat" and "the Republican." But the generic ballot can suggest which direction voters are heading. 

History is helpful here, courtesy of the RealClear Politics polling average:

• At this point in 2022 — after more than a year and a half of Democratic President Joe Biden and Democratic majorities in the House and Senate — Republicans had a small but significant lead (2.9 percentage points) on the generic ballot. On Election Day, the GOP translated its final polling lead of 3 percentage points into nine seats — enough to flip the House.

• At this point in 2018 — with Trump as president and Republican majorities in the House and Senate — Democrats were leading by an average of 7.5 points on the generic ballot. Four days later, they picked up 41 seats and flipped the House.

• Polarization wasn't as extreme in 2014 and 2010, the two midterms under Democratic President Barack Obama; minds weren't made up quite so early. But with four days to go, voters had clearly broken against Democrats. In 2014, a Republican polling lead of 2.5 points translated into a net gain of 13 seats in the House; in 2010, those numbers were 6.3 points and 63 seats, respectively.

So what does that mean for 2026? Historically speaking, a president's party almost always loses seats when voters return to the polls to judge his first two years in office. Sometimes, the backlash is so pervasive that the president's party loses pretty much every close-ish contest — a phenomenon known as a "wave" election.

Right now, Democrats have a wave-sized lead on the generic ballot — nearly 9 percentage points, on average. And that margin has held steady over the last month.

Democrats might not reprise 2018 and flip 41 House seats again in November, in part because red-state Republican lawmakers have recently redrawn congressional maps across the South to benefit their party in ways that blue-state Democrats have been unable to keep up with. But they only need to pick up three seats to win back the House.  

Advantage? Democrats.

12 specific Senate races

National dynamics tend to define the composition of the incoming House. But Senate contests are quirkier — more state-specific and personality-driven. Democrats currently hold 47 Senate seats; they'd need 51 to control the chamber. (A 50-50 split would give Vice President JD Vance the tiebreaking vote). Polls suggest that flipping four Republican seats is very possible. In the states where Dems are playing defense — Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire — their leads are solidifying; meanwhile, red states such as Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and South Carolina seem increasingly competitive. Here are the 12 races to follow:

Maine (Republican seat)

• Republican Susan Collins (incumbent)

• Democrat Troy Jackson

What the latest polls say: Jackson, who replaced Graham Platner, the Democrats' previous scandal-plagued nominee, tends to lead Collins by anywhere from 2 to 7 percentage points. New polls from CNN and Marist University show Jackson ahead by 4 points and 2 points, respectively.

Michigan (Democratic seat)

• Republican Mike Rogers (former member of Congress)

• Democrat Abdul El-Sayed (public-health epidemiologist and former Wayne County, Mich. health director)

What the latest polls say: Twelve polls have been conducted in October. Eleven of them have shown El-Sayed in the lead, by anywhere from 1 to 7 percentage points. New surveys from CBS Detroit and CNN both give El-Sayed a 7-point lead.

Ohio (Republican seat)

• Republican Jon Husted (incumbent)

• Democrat Sherrod Brown (former senator)

What the latest polls say: Brown has edged Husted in nearly every poll conducted since the first week of October, with margins ranging from 2 to 6 percentage points. A new Echelon Insights poll shows a tie; a new Suffolk University poll shows Brown leading by 3.

Georgia (Democratic seat)

• Democrat Jon Ossoff (incumbent)

• Republican Mike Collins (member of Congress)

What the latest polls say: Ossoff holds a solid lead over Collins, with October polls putting him ahead by an average of 9 percentage points. A new Echelon Insights survey gives Ossoff a 15-point lead.

North Carolina (Republican seat)

• Republican Michael Whatley (former Republican National Committee chairman)

• Democrat Roy Cooper (former governor)

What the latest polls say: Cooper leads by nearly 11 points, on average. One of the most recent nonpartisan surveys showed him ahead by 14.

New Hampshire (Democratic seat)

• Republican John E. Sununu (former U.S. senator)

• Democrat Chris Pappas (four-term U.S. representative)

What the latest polls say: Pappas and Sununu were previously trading leads in polls in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. But Pappas appears to have opened a substantial lead — average margin: 7 percentage points — over the last month.

Alaska (Republican seat)

• Republican Dan Sullivan (incumbent)

• Democrat Mary Peltola (former member of Congress)

What the latest polls say: Surveys conducted in October show Peltola leading by anywhere from 2 to 7 percentage points. Some September polls showed a tie, or Sullivan slightly ahead.

Iowa (Republican seat)

• Republican Ashley Hinson (member of Congress)

• Democrat Josh Turek (state legislator and former Paralympic athlete)

What the latest polls say: Hinson and Turek have traded small leads in surveys released since Iowa's June 2 primaries. A new Echelon Insights poll gives Turek a 2-point lead; a new co/efficient poll shows Hinson ahead by the same amount.

Texas (Republican seat)

• Republican Ken Paxton (state attorney general)

• Democrat James Talarico (state legislator)

What the latest polls say: Nearly every poll conducted this fall has shown Talarico leading Paxton, though the margins were small — between 2 and 6 points. But the Democrat seems to be closing strong: a new YouGov Blue poll gives Talarico an 8-point lead; a new CNN survey shows him ahead by 6; and a new Activote poll has him edging Paxton by 4. A Quantus Insights survey released on Friday gives Paxton a 1-point advantage.

Nebraska (Republican seat)

• Republican Pete Ricketts (incumbent and former governor)

• Independent Dan Osborn (veteran and former union leader with Democratic support)

What the latest polls say: Surveys are few and far between. But the most recent nonpartisan results suggest Osborn could be competitive, and a couple of new Osborn-affiliated polls show Ricketts and his independent challenger trading small leads. An Echelon Insights poll released on Tuesday shows Ricketts ahead by 1 point.

Kansas (Republican seat)

• Republican Roger Marshall (incumbent)

• Democrat Adam Hamilton (Methodist pastor who previously considered an independent run)

What the latest polls say: Only one survey conducted over the last month shows Marshall ahead (by a single point). The rest (save one tie) give Hamilton a slight edge (between 1 and 5 percentage points). A new CNN poll has Hamilton up by 4; a new Emerson College survey puts him ahead by roughly the same amount. On Friday, the Washington Post released a poll showing Hamilton lapping Marshall by about 10 points. But the paper questioned its own results, noting that Republicans responded at much lower rates than Democrats.

South Carolina (Republican seat)

• Republican Darline Graham (incumbent, appointed to replace her brother Lindsey Graham after his death in July)

• Democrat Annie Andrews (pediatrician and former U.S. House candidate)

What the latest polls say: Graham held a narrow lead in most fall surveys. But it was small enough — between 1 and 3 percentage points — that Democrats are now targeting South Carolina as well. A partisan poll released on Thursday gave Andrews a 1-point advantage, and a new New York Times/Siena University poll shows the two candidates essentially tied.

Advantage? Democrats. They've been consistently gaining ground over the last month, to the point where they are now favored to flip the Senate — unless the polls are wrong.

Trump's approval rating — especially on affordability

To one degree or another, midterm elections are always referendums on how the president is performing. So Trump is the final piece of the puzzle.

At the moment, that's unfortunate news for Republicans on Capitol Hill and those looking to join them.

According to the data journalists at Silver Bulletin, 59.9% of Americans, on average, currently disapprove of how Trump is handling his job vs. 37.3% who approve. That puts the president's net approval rating at -22.6% — near his all-time low.

Here's a sampling of Trump's latest net approval numbers from a few top pollsters:

• New York Times/Siena University: -26%

• American Research Group: -38%

• CNN/SSRS: -35%

• Reuters/Ipsos: -35%

Again, history can provide perspective. In late-October 2018, Trump was about 10 points "underwater"; Republicans went on to lose 41 seats that November. 

According to the New York Times, Trump has the second lowest approval rating heading into the midterms since 1946, behind only Harry Truman. George W. Bush's approval rating was higher at this point in 2006 — a year in which Democrats went on to flip the House and Senate.

Trump is earning even lower marks on voters' top 2026 issue: the cost of living. Shortly after he returned to office, roughly equal numbers of Americans approved and disapproved of how the president was handling inflation. But today, 70% disapprove and 25% approve. That's a 45-point gap.

In comparison, Biden's approval rating on inflation was rarely underwater by more than 30 points during his presidency  — a period that coincided with the economic shocks of COVID-19 and ended with him choosing not to stand for reelection.  

Advantage? Democrats.

Republicans are bracing themselves for a Democratic blowout in Tuesday's midterms, with some expecting "a brutal evening" and already expressing resignation about losing their majorities in Congress, according to a report.

President Donald Trump has placed himself front and center of GOP campaigning, attempting to encourage conservative turnout by urging voters to behave as though he himself were on the ballot, rather than zeroing in on specific issues.

The strategy threatens to backfire, however, given his deep unpopularity and historically low approval ratings, currently the lowest of his second term at 30 percent – according to Pew Research – and the worst of any sitting president going into the midterms since Harry Truman in 1946.

"It could be quite a brutal evening," one senior Republican strategist told Politico. "Once the dominoes start falling it becomes hard to stop them."

The outlet reports that House Republicans are privately discussing not just whether they will lose their majority in the lower chamber, but by how many seats, while some GOP incumbents in districts once considered safe are pleading party leaders for emergency funding.

Others have reportedly ceased doing their own polling, preferring simply to look away.

Senate Republicans, meanwhile, have begun to fret about their prospects in red states won easily by Trump in 2024, such as Ohio, Kansas, South Carolina, Texas and Louisiana.

"The cakewalk turned into a knife fight," a member of the GOP in Louisiana said, summing up Senate nominee Julia Letlow's race. "If Democrat turnout surges on Election Day, it'll be a long night in Monroe."

The party of the president often performs poorly at the midterms and Republican strategists have long taken a pessimistic outlook because of that factor and the electorate's clear disapproval over the Iran war and Trump's perceived inaction on affordability.

They are nevertheless facing "a worse position than they expected earlier this year," according to Politico.

"Any Democrats telling you they aren't winning the Senate [besides] a couple of seats are sandbagging expectations," one particularly dismayed senior Republican is quoted as saying.

"I can see the light at the end of the tunnel," said another. "It might be a semi-truck, but at least I can see it."

Perhaps most damningly of all, the outlet writes: "One Republican strategist working on midterm races simply responded to a question about the environment with a video of a dumpster on fire that was being swept away by flood waters."

The atmosphere of defeatism appeared to be getting to Trump himself Thursday, who snapped at a Reuters journalist who asked whether an abrupt decision to cancel weekend rallies in Kansas and Iowa was due to his health. "You are disgusting," the president told him. "Put yourself in shape. You look like hell."

The president has since reversed course and those rallies are now back on his schedule.

One particular area of concern to conservatives is the prospect of young men – who turned out in droves to support Trump two years ago – refusing to back him again, alienated by what they see as broken promises over the economy.

Whether that fear will be realized remains to be seen and one Senate Democratic operative struck a much more cautious note: "I would rather be us than them. But if anyone tells you they know what's going to happen, they're full of s***. Everything is close."

Around 40 million Americans have already cast their ballots in this year's midterms, which will have major repercussions for the second half of Trump's final term and could render him a lame duck, powerless to pass his legislative agenda and under investigation by newly-energized and emboldened Democrats on Capitol, Hill.